GOOD MORNING, CFO

Saturday, September 20, 2025

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HEADLINES & DEADLINES

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Fed cuts first rate since December

The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark rate by 25 bps to 4.00%–4.25%, citing a weakening labor market while inflation remains elevated (~2.9%). Miran dissented, pushing instead for a 50 bp cut. The committee signals two more cuts this year.

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Labor market worse than we thought

Benchmark revisions from the BLS show the U.S. added 911,000 fewer jobs between April 2024 and March 2025 than previously reported. That drastically lowers recent growth pace and adds urgency to Fed easing.

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OpenAI hires xAI CFO, signaling growing war for AI finance talent

Mike Liberatore, formerly CFO at Elon Musk’s xAI, is now Business Finance Officer at OpenAI. He’ll help scale AI infrastructure spending alongside CFO Sarah Friar, showing how strategic finance roles are being reshaped.

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Markets bet on faster rate cuts

Following the Fed’s rate move, investors are now pricing in cuts in October and December, earlier than many policymakers signaled. Futures suggest rates could fall below 3% by end of 2026, down from Fed’s median forecast.

FAST FACTS

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  • 25 bps: size of recent rate cut by the Fed

  • 911,000: jobs over-estimation from prior reports via BLS revision

  • 2 cuts more: expected by Fed this year (Oct, Dec)

MORNING HACKS

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  • Rebuild models using revised labor data ; forecasts & budgets may be too optimistic.

  • Review debt and financing schedules; lower rates could afford refinancing opportunities.

  • For AI investments, prioritize finance‐infrastructure scaling and talent to match spending.

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