GOOD MORNING, CFO
Sunday, September 14, 2025
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HEADLINES & INSIGHTS
Labor market is showing cracks
Non-farm payrolls rose just 22,000 in August. Unemployment hit 4.3%, the highest in about four years.
Job claims spiked to 263,000 in early September, the most in nearly four years.
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Inflation is accelerating again
CPI rose 0.4% in August, making annual inflation 2.9% (highest this year). Core inflation (excluding food and energy) remains sticky at ~3.1%.
Tariffs are fuelling inflation, especially in goods, apparel, vehicles, and electronics. Supply chain/import duties showing up in daily costs.
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Fed expected to cut rate...but how much?
Most analysts expect a 25-basis-point cut at the Sept 16-17 meeting. Some institutions (e.g. Bank of America, Standard Chartered) are now betting on two cuts this year (Sept + Dec).
The Fed is caught between rising inflation and fading job growth. Labor market weakness may force their hand despite risks.
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Outlook downgraded
The CBO (Congressional Budget Office) now projects slower growth (≈1.4% GDP for 2025), higher unemployment (4.5%) and inflation around 3.1% for the full year.
Consumer confidence fell for a second month. Economists warn that rising price expectations and concern over tariffs are undermining sentiment.
WHAT CFOS SHOULD DO NOW
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Revisit your cost and margin forecasts under scenarios of rising inflation + weaker demand.
Lock in debt financing or refinancing ahead of the rate cut; rates may fall, but pricing volatility remains.
Reassess staffing and hiring plans. If job growth is weakening, consider tightening budgets and holding off large hires.
Monitor input costs for goods dependent on imports. Tariffs are acting as an inflation multiplier.
TURBO HEADLINES
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Dell CFO out: Yvonne McGill resigns after two years, capping a 30-year career. Credited with helping grow Dell’s AI business.
Walmart CFO trims stock plan: John David Rainey to sell up to 40,000 shares early next year.
AI jobs risk: Fed warns displacement may already be underway; Salesforce and Amazon highlight automation replacing human tasks.
Tesla CFO sells more shares: Comes as Musk pushes for a $1T pay package.
Healthcare costs surge: Employers expect +9.5% rise in health insurance expenses next year, the steepest in 15 years.
FAST FACTS
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Inflation (CPI, year/year) ~ 2.9%
Core inflation ~ 3.1%
Unemployment rate 4.3%
Job growth (August) +22,000 positions
Expected Fed rate moves ~25 bps cut in Sept; possibly another in December.
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