GOOD MORNING, CFO
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☕ Here’s what smart CFOs read before their first Zoom of the weekend…
HEADLINES & DEADLINES
Sentiment chill hits Main Street
US consumer sentiment slipped in the University of Michigan’s August prelim read to 58.6, down 5% from July, with tariff worries and price stickiness weighing on households.
If you were hoping for a demand tailwind, maybe keep the party hats boxed. (Census.gov)
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Mortgage rate breather
The average 30-year fixed eased to 6.58%, the lowest since October 2024. Good for refi math and home-adjacent categories, but don’t model a stampede yet.
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Cardboard says cool your jets
Shipments of corrugated boxes fell to their lowest Q2 level since 2015, a classic “future sales” proxy flashing yellow for goods demand. If boxes are down, so are a lot of forecasts.
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Big Tech’s capex arms race
Alphabet is sticking with an eye-watering $75B 2025 capex plan to feed AI data centers and chips. Translate: cloud vendors will keep spending, and so will anyone selling them power, steel, land, and talent. (Data Center Dynamics)
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Climate disclosures on pause
The SEC stopped defending its climate disclosure rule in April after multiple court challenges and a nationwide stay. Treat 2026 planning as “uncertain” for scope and timing, and keep your voluntary reporting tight. (Reuters)
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DC’s industrial policy… gets equity-curious
The administration has explored taking a stake in Intel tied to its Ohio fabs, continuing a trend of deal-style interventions around chips. It is fluid, but worth tracking for anyone in semis or suppliers. (Fox Business, Freddie Mac)
NEWS ON TURBO MODE
- Producer prices’ tariff pass-through is still working its way into the data, so assume a few more quarters of PPI noise in your input costs.
- Tesla and Waymo inch robotaxi ambitions forward in different states, but New York remains a regulatory maze. Keep the insurance line item bolded. (Public Company Advisory Blog)
- Regional bank M&A chatter persists as “scale or surrender” pressures build. Your treasury counterparties may not look the same in 12 months. (CFO Dive)
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FAST FACTS YOU SHOULD KNOW
58.6 – August prelim consumer sentiment. Not the recession horn, but not confetti either.
6.58% – Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate. Small moves, real cash-flow effects.
Since 2015 – Last time Q2 cardboard shipments were this low. Watch your Q4 sell-in assumptions.
$75B – Alphabet’s 2025 capex plan targeting AI infra. Someone is getting those POs.
CFO-APPROVED WATCHLIST
Read: Why box shipments are a sneaky demand signal the C-suite still respects.
Read: Alphabet’s AI capex posture and what it means for hyperscaler suppliers. (Data Center Dynamics)
Read: The state of consumer mood you can actually plug into your model. (Census.gov)
MORNING HACKS
- Tariff stress test in 20 minutes: Pull your top 25 SKUs by gross margin, layer current PPI category deltas on key inputs, and mark anything with <150 bps cushion for a Q3 pricing or packaging review.
- Working capital nudge: With sentiment soft and boxes down, tighten customer-specific forecasts and pre-agree on shipment flex windows so you do not warehouse your gross margin into December.
Written by the caffeine-fueled finance nerds behind Good Morning, CFO. Forward to a CFO who still calls corrugated “free inventory guidance.”
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