GOOD MORNING, CFO
The only newsletter a well-informed CFO needs.
Here’s what’s happening across finance, strategy, AI, and the macro picture, with the only question that matters for CFOs: What does this mean for the next 12 months?
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LEAD STORIES
1. The AI Bubble Question Is Getting Louder
Is AI in a bubble, or are CFOs just scared of capex receipts?
NYU’s Aswath Damodaran just dropped a reality check: AI valuations are looking “frothy,” bond markets are flashing yellow, and investors are getting skittish as companies stack debt to finance $25–$30B data centers.
(Meta’s Louisiana project being the poster child.)
Context: CFOs are being forced to sign off on AI budgets with:
• no depreciation clarity
• no proven ROI
• no visibility on GPU lifespan
• and valuations priced like it’s 1999 with APIs.
AI spend is starting to smell like pre-2001 fiber-optic capex: lots of infrastructure, very little certainty.
People are debating:
If the bubble pops, who gets blamed first?
The CEO who demanded it, or the CFO who approved it?
And are we building for productivity… or just building because everyone else is?
2. Consumers Are Pulling Back, Quietly but Clearly
Retail CFOs are all telling the same story: cautious spending, trade-downs, tariffs squeezing prices, and lower-income consumers falling behind.
From Walmart to Target to TJX, the value hunt is real. Even “resilient consumer” talk has shifted into “consistent but moderating.”
Context: This is the fourth signal in two weeks:
• Consumer sentiment (U. Michigan) plunged
• Home Depot and Lowe’s cut guidance
• Restaurant chains warning of softness
• Tariffs raising costs everywhere
The retail bellwether ecosystem is screaming one thing: Q4 is stable but fragile.
People are debating:
Are CFOs underestimating consumer stress in their 2026 budgets? Is this a small wobble… or the start of demand erosion?
3. 51% of Leaders Admit They Still Don’t Have an AI Strategy (BDO)
AI is the hottest topic on earth. And yet half of leadership teams say they don’t know where it fits.
BDO’s new report shows:
• 51%: “We don’t have a clear AI strategy.”
• 57%: “We want to fast-track AI anyway.”
• 42%: “We don’t have the skills or enablement to do it.”
So we’re trying to scale AI with unclear plans, messy data, and overwhelmed employees. Excellent.
Context: AI anxiety in the workforce is rising:
• Fear of job loss • Confusion about tools • Pressure to adopt without clarity
And CFOs are caught in the middle, funding something that no one fully understands.
People are debating:
Should CFOs slow down and build foundations, or speed up before they get left behind?
Is AI a strategic transformation… or the next corporate money pit?
SECONDARY STORIES
4. Zero-Trust Security in an AI-Attack Era
Anthropic just confirmed: Claude was used to automate up to 90% of a Chinese-sponsored cyberattack.
This is no longer a hypothetical. AI is now part of the attack surface.
Context: CFOs now face new categories of risk:
• AI-enabled hacking sophistication
• Cross-border cloud exposure
• Vendor-system vulnerabilities
• Insurance premium spikes
• Board-level accountability
The line between “internal system” and “external system” is disappearing as cloud partners multiply.
People are debating:
Does your org treat cyber as a financial risk or an IT inconvenience?
And if an AI-driven breach hits tomorrow, who owns the fallout?
5. The CFO Alliance Releases Its 2026 Blueprint (And It’s Spicy)
According to Oracle NetSuite and the CFO Alliance, 2026 will be “the most pivotal year the finance function has faced in a decade.”
The report highlights four converging forces:
• AI disruption
• Capital pressure from investors
• Higher stakes in risk alignment
• Historic volatility in talent, structure, and strategy
Context: CFOs are expected to:
• reinterpret the org chart
• modernize finance ops
• realign talent to new roles
• build multi-scenario planning as a default setting
2026 might be the year finance becomes the de facto COO.
CFOs are debating:
Is the CFO role expanding… or are CEOs unloading more complexity onto finance?
And are we equipped for this shift?
6. Robotics Might Actually Go Mainstream This Time
Humanoid robots are getting real attention; especially 1X’s “Neo,” which doubles as an autonomous housekeeper that can also be remotely controlled by humans.
Yes, privacy concerns are huge. No, that won’t stop enterprise adoption.
Context: Robotics companies are obsessed with training data, and businesses are already training AI models on audio, video, and movement at scale.
This is drifting into normal enterprise ops faster than expected.
People are debating:
Will humanoid robotics enter the workplace first in:
hospitals, logistics, manufacturing… or front-office ops?
And what will finance automate first?
TURBO NEWS ROUNDUP
Crypto market value has lost $1 trillion since October highs Macro instability + risk appetite squeezed.
OpenAI CFO says GPU depreciation is wrecking earnings models No one knows how long GPUs “last”, making capex planning guesswork.
MIT CFO Summit: 4 key takeaways AI, structure redesign, culture shifts, and the CFO role expanding.
Consumer confidence slumps across all metrics U. Michigan numbers show a psychological cooling.
NY Governor signs CPA licensing reform 24 states now loosening requirements, talent pipeline reboot.
Hasbro CFO: AI should be employees’ “first course of action” AI-first workflows are becoming normal.
Fed uncertainty rises: no CPI data before next rate decision A nightmare for CFO forecasting.
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