GOOD MORNING, CFO
Saturday, August 30, 2025
Fed drama still won’t leave the headlines, AI budgets are under the microscope, and hiring is tightening faster than expected.
In this issue:
Fed independence on trial
AI hype vs CFO math
Labor pullback accelerates
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HEADLINES & DEADLINES
Trump tangles with the Fed
President Trump has gone after Fed Governor Lisa Cook, trying to oust her over alleged mortgage fraud.
Cook is fighting back in court, which could keep her on the September voting roster.
At the same time, Trump is exploring ways to influence how regional Fed presidents are chosen, a move economists warn could politicize monetary policy.
Markets are already jittery. The dollar has slipped in recent days, and analysts suggest the weakness may even be a deliberate push to make U.S. exports cheaper.
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TECHNOLOGY
AI’s ROI problem grows
Remember when AI was supposed to transform the bottom line overnight?
A new MIT-led study says 95 percent of enterprise generative AI investments failed to deliver measurable returns. S&P Global found 42 percent of firms dropped most of their AI programs this year, up from 17 percent last year.
McKinsey reports adoption is broad but value is elusive.
The one bright spot: operations-focused AI is showing real gains in efficiency, suggesting CFOs should target narrow, high-impact use cases rather than broad experiments.
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TALENT & LABOR
Hiring on ice
The Conference Board reports that only 36 percent of CHROs plan to increase hiring in the next six months, down from 41 percent a year ago. Meanwhile, 20 percent plan cuts, almost double last year’s level.
Unemployment is still low at 4.2 percent, but job seekers now spend an average of 24 weeks to land a role. CHROs say the focus has shifted to retention and upskilling instead of net new hires.
For CFOs, it is time to adjust workforce models and payroll forecasts before year-end.
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FAST FACTS
95 percent of enterprise AI pilots fail (MIT)
42 percent of firms dropped AI programs in 2025 (S&P Global)
36 percent of CHROs plan to expand hiring in H2 2025
24 weeks is the average time it now takes to land a new job
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MORNING HACKS
Run a Fed risk memo: outline how a politicized Fed could change rates and the impact on your capital structure.
Launch an AI audit: kill projects without ROI and shift budgets into operations-focused automation that pays back quickly.
Revisit workforce models: simulate payroll scenarios based on slower hiring and longer vacancy cycles.
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